Eric Sepanek
SBC Founder
Eric Sepanek is the founder of Scottsdale Bullion & Coin, established in 2011. With extensive experience in the precious metals industry, he is dedicated to educating Americans on the wealth preservation power of gold and silver.
Gold is on track to hit $4,000 as the rally builds momentum, according to Yardeni Research. While acknowledging the safe-haven demand sparked by a global trade war, the global investment company bases its bullish prediction on relentless central bank purchases. More specifically, analysts highlight how countries seek to reduce their reliance on the US dollar by topping up their gold reserves. Notably, Yardeni’s founder takes the time to explain the foundational difference between Bitcoin and gold when it comes to investment security.
The Yellow Metal Shimmers
In a recent “Market Call” note to investors, Yardeni Research launched an ambitious price target for gold at $4,000. The investment group sees the yellow metal’s ongoing rally stretching into next year, hitting this new benchmark in 2026. The elevated price target represents more than a 33% surge from current levels, near the $3,000 threshold.
Stoked by alarming macroeconomic indicators and widespread consumer uncertainty, gold prices have already gained more than 16%. Year-on-year, the yellow metal is up over 40%. These impressive figures lend credence to Yardeni’s bold prediction, which might seem far-fetched at first glance.
The Real Force Behind Gold’s Rally
As stock markets sink, consumer confidence wanes, and experts warn of a recession, investors are seeing gold as a good investment in 2025. However, retail demand isn’t the driving force behind the yellow metal’s momentum. Yardeni joins most industry experts in pointing to sustained central bank demand as the primary catalyst.
According to the investment group, “Countries hostile to the U.S. continue to accumulate it as a haven from U.S. sanctions. They’ve been doing so since the U.S. froze the international reserves of Russia when it invaded Ukraine in early 2022.”
This timeline reflects the past three years of heightened government gold purchases, which have stood at more than 1,000 tons annually.
Bitcoin vs. Gold: Not the Same Safe-Haven
In the same note to investors, Yardeni addresses the temptation to compare gold to Bitcoin, especially as the flagship cryptocurrency has earned the nickname “digital gold.” In reality, this comparison doesn’t quite hold up under scrutiny. The two assets have shown markedly different performances, suggesting they serve different functions in a portfolio.
Gold has a long history of preserving value during periods of economic uncertainty, keeping pace with inflation and often rising when traditional assets like stocks, ETFs, and mutual funds falter—a trend backed by more than a century of data. Bitcoin, by contrast, is a much newer asset that still moves closely in step with the stock market. That correlation undermines its claim as a true safe-haven asset.
Yardeni Research sums up the difference between Bitcoin and gold succinctly: “The former is a risk-on play; the latter is a risk-off haven.”
Gold’s Rising Forecasts
Ever since gold blew past the $3,000 milestone, many financial institutions have been scrambling to update their price forecasts for 2025. Yardeni’s $4,000 call for next year lines up with some of the more bullish predictions for this year. For example, Goldman Sachs raised its outlook to $3,300 while both Bank of America and Macquarie Bank have set their sights on $3,500.
👉 Suggested Read: Gold Price Predictions & Forecasts for 2025
I would think you should be able to see $3,300 pretty quickly…maybe this year as a personal price target, but I have seen some estimates of even as high as $4,500 for the end of 2026.Scottsdale Bullion & Coin’s Sr. Precious Metals Advisor Damian White