The results are in from Kitco News’ weekly gold forecast survey, and the experts are divided. Of the 37 participants, 24 responded this week, with half of them taking the bearish view. Eight of the other twelve analysts see prices going up, and the final 4 took a neutral stance on the yellow metal. Participants range from bullion dealers and investment bankers to futures traders and technical analysts.
Last Friday, the majority of participants correctly saw gold down this week, even though prices saw a nice jump on Friday after a weaker-than-anticipated jobs report was released.
Phillip Streible, senior market strategist with RJO Futures and a survey participant, said, “Gold prices should continue to see pressure into next week despite rising geopolitical risk and Argentine debt worries. The biggest headwinds are the recovery (in) economic data, improving housing and labor markets.”
Richard Baker, author/editor of the Eureka Miner’s Market Report, was another bearish respondent:
“My vote is down. Gold follows the trend lower after this month’s NFP (U.S. nonfarm payrolls) data is behind us.”
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The eight bullish participants were also very certain about their view. Ken Morrison, editor of the online newsletter Morrison on the Markets, sees a strong push in the near future:
“Gold essentially got to my $1,280 downside target and with the dollar showing signs it will take a breather, I expect gold can rally into the $1,310-20 area over the next week,” he said.
Four respondents took a neutral stance on next week’s trading, thinking that the precious metal is in for more of the same ups and downs.
“Gold continues to be range-bound, dominated by short-term traders playing both sides of the market taking advantage of the volatility,” Frank Lesh, broker and futures analyst with FuturePath Trading, told Kitco News. “Gold is supported by geopolitical tensions and those who believe in the ‘insurance trade’ of holding gold just in case something happens. Investment demand is lacking as participants do not feel gold has much chance for significant price appreciation at this time. The interest rate debate is one of the main influences for gold right now and this should continue to keep trade volatile. I am neutral gold and expect a sideways range-bound market the next several weeks.”
Chart image via: Kitco