Steve Rand
General Manager / Sr. Precious Metals Advisor
Steve Rand is the General Manager and a Sr. Precious Metals Advisor at Scottsdale Bullion & Coin. He brings over 20 years of experience in the physical precious metals markets.
Silver has been proposed for inclusion in the US Critical Minerals List for the first time, a move that could reshape how the precious metal is valued and supplied. From record-breaking demand and tightening deficits to the looming risk of tariffs under President Trump’s trade agenda, silver’s new designation puts it at the heart of America’s economic and security priorities and could be the catalyst for its next big price shift.
What Is the Critical Minerals List?
The US Critical Minerals List outlines resources that are deemed critical to the country’s economy and national security. The list was established by President Trump in 2017 through an executive order before being codified into law with the Energy Act of 2020.
To make the list of critical minerals, a resource must meet all three of the following criteria:
- Essential to the US economy or defense,
- Vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, and
- Vital to manufacturing applications, such as technology, energy, healthcare, or agriculture.
What Changed in 2025?
The list is updated every three years to capture shifts in geopolitical risks, economic conditions, and market vulnerabilities. The first list was published in 2018, the second in 2022, and the US Geological Survey has now released a draft for 2025.
This update drew on a new model that simulated more than 1,200 supply-shock scenarios across 402 industries and 84 minerals. These simulations give policymakers a clearer picture of how different commodities could be affected under likely disruption scenarios.
The 2025 Draft List of Critical Minerals removed two resources–arsenic and tellurium–from the previous year, but added six–lead, rhenium, potash, silicon, copper, and silver. The shiny metal’s inclusion is generating a lot of buzz in the precious metals space as investors wonder how silver’s consideration as a critical mineral could impact its value.
Why Silver Was Added in 2025
2025 could mark the first time silver appears on the US Critical Minerals List. A draft version published in the Federal Register on August 26, 2025, includes silver among six new additions. Several factors pushed the metal over the threshold this year:
Concentrated Mexico Sourcing
Nearly a quarter of the world’s silver supply comes from Mexico, making it the single largest source globally. That concentration creates a chokepoint for US imports, particularly given the region’s history of political and regulatory uncertainty.
A direct USGS report describes silver’s addition to the critical minerals list as a hedge against a “low-probability but high-impact disruption scenario in Mexico”—a recognition of how exposed the United States is to supply risks from its primary supplier.
Expanding Industrial Role
Silver’s identity as more than a precious metal helped cement its inclusion on the Critical Minerals List. Demand is surging across renewable energy, electronics, artificial intelligence, and defense applications.
For example, solar panels alone could consume nearly all of the global supply by 2050. At the same time, healthcare demand is accelerating as the silver nanoparticle market, used in wound care, diagnostics, and medical devices, is forecast to expand from $3.2 billion in 2024 to $10.4 billion by 2033, a 13.8% annual growth rate.
Persistent Global Deficits
Concentrated sourcing isn’t silver’s only supply-side challenge. The market has now recorded four consecutive years of deficits, including a shortfall of roughly 149 million ounces in 2024 and a combined 678 million ounces over the past four years.
Analysts expect 2025 to mark the fifth straight year where demand continues to outpace stagnant mine supply. With more than half of silver mined as a byproduct of other metals, experts warn it could take the better part of the decade for new production to meaningfully address the imbalance.
These factors combined to tip the scales in 2025, transforming silver from a traditional precious metal in the market’s view into a strategically vital resource on Washington’s radar.
What Inclusion Means for Silver
The reasons silver made the Critical Minerals List are important, but for investors, the bigger story is what the designation means in practice. Silver’s new status brings several bullish implications:
- Policy Support – Silver projects may benefit from supportive measures such as federal funding, lighter regulatory burdens, streamlined permitting, and even official stockpiling.
- Official Recognition – Washington is preparing to elevate silver from a traditional precious metal to a resource deemed vital to national security and economic stability. That recognition echoes gold’s upgrade to Tier 1 reserve asset status.
- Stronger Long-Term Case – When platinum and palladium were added to the list in 2022, prices didn’t spike immediately. Yet, the designation underscored their strategic value and reinforced their long-term growth trajectory.
Tariff Risk Looms Larger
The most immediate market impact of silver’s new status may be tariff exposure under the Trump administration’s expanding trade strategy. Up to now, precious metals like gold and silver have generally been treated as monetary instruments and spared from levies.
However, silver’s inclusion on the Critical Minerals List puts that carveout in doubt, leaving it more vulnerable than ever. By law, minerals designated as “critical” can be reviewed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which allows tariffs on imports deemed vital to national security.
In light of these changes, Citigroup analysts see a considerable chance of silver imports getting slapped with tariffs. Past scares underscore how quickly policy shifts can rattle markets. Last month, gold prices spiked when the US Customs and Border Protection briefly listed certain gold bars under Switzerland’s 39% tariff rate.
Although the error was quickly corrected, it offered a preview of how a full-scale import tax could ripple through the precious metals market:
- Pre-Tariff Onshoring – The mere prospect of tariffs typically triggers a rush to secure physical silver in advance, as investors and institutions move to take delivery before import costs rise.
- Tightening Supply – An already strained silver market would face additional pressure as higher operational costs weigh on suppliers and bullion banks struggle to meet the sudden surge in demand.
- Price Spike – The combination of accelerated buying and an overnight squeeze on supply could ignite a sharp rally, pushing silver prices dramatically higher in a short period.
How Could Tariffs Impact Silver Prices?
Citi’s warning that silver is only pricing in a 2–3% US premium hints at how much room is left for adjustment. If Section 232 tariffs land in the 15–50% range (which has been discussed), US silver could trade $6–$20 above international spot, placing futures above $40/oz to potentially near $60/oz, even without a broader rally.
👉 Related Read: 10 Factors that Influence Silver Prices