Eric Sepanek
SBC Founder
Eric Sepanek is the founder of Scottsdale Bullion & Coin, established in 2011. With extensive experience in the precious metals industry, he is dedicated to educating Americans on the wealth preservation power of gold and silver.
Gold is on track to average $3,210/oz in 2025, according to Metals Focus. This record average would signal a significant jump from 2024 averages, cementing the yellow metal’s historic gains and setting it up for further growth. The precious metals research group cites heightened geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic volatility for spiking investor demand on national and retail levels. This increasing demand is on track to collide with a modestly growing supply, adding to the bullish narrative.
Gold’s Average Price to Surge by 34%
Metal Focus’s $3,210 prediction doesn’t represent a static 2025 gold price forecast. Prices have already claimed a $3,500 peak this year. Instead, this figure represents the projected average gold price for the year, which would mark an impressive 34% increase from 2024’s average of $2,386.
While annual highs tend to grab headlines, an asset’s yearly average is a far better gauge of its underlying value and long-term momentum. With this bullish outlook, Metals Focus is looking past singular highs to underscore a market with a firm foundation for a sustained rally in gold prices.
Official Demand to Exceed 1,000 Tons in 2025
In the same report, analysts projected central bank gold demand to reach 1,000 tons this year, primarily fueled by macroeconomic uncertainty. As fiat currencies wobble, global trade relations fray, and inflationary pressures mount, governments are shoring up their economies with physical gold. This would mark the fourth consecutive year official sector consumption remained at this level, underscoring the unprecedented surge in gold purchases over the past few years.
Retail Demand to Rise
Governments may be the largest investors, but retail demand comprises the majority of total gold demand, especially when accounting for jewelry purchases. Throughout 2024, Eastern investors dominated gold inflows while American and European traders largely remained on the sidelines.
Metals Focus analysts expect overall retail buying to tick up on the back of sustained Asian demand and a revival in Western purchases. Investor confidence in US markets and the dollar itself is reeling at home and abroad in the midst of a debt crisis, trade turmoil, and policy uncertainty, increasing gold appetite.
Struggling Gold Supply
The gold supply is expected to rise modestly in 2025, primarily due to a slight bump in mining output. However, secondary supply sources such as gold recycling are expected to plateau. This constraint on a significant source of available supply, in tandem with heightened official consumption and reignited retail demand, suggests a limited amount of gold entering the market. This places upward pressure on gold prices, which are already near all-time highs, further bolstering its bullish case.
“Dips Will Be Bought”
The gold market is looking at clear skies for long-term growth, but some volatility is still on the radar. As Newman explains, slight corrections and price whiplashes may occur along the way, given the influx of speculative trading.
While gold is widely seen as a dependable asset for preserving wealth over time, any rapidly growing asset is bound to attract short-term investors.
Instead of issuing a warning, Metals Focus is highlighting an opportunity. As corrections shake out speculative traders, long-term holders will have a chance to dollar-cost average into a lower basis.
“We anticipate that dips will be bought.”
This recommendation echoes a growing number of analysts encouraging investors to “buy the dip” whenever gold’s rally takes a breather. Bank of America is going one step further by remaining “buyers of dips in gold,” according to Michael Hartnett.
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