Eric Sepanek
SBC Founder
Eric Sepanek is the founder of Scottsdale Bullion & Coin, established in 2011. With extensive experience in the precious metals industry, he is dedicated to educating Americans on the wealth preservation power of gold and silver.
Gold is on track to touch an all-time high of $4,000, says billionaire investor Jeffrey Gundlach. The bold call, representing a significant jump from current prices, comes as the yellow metal recently pushed past the $3,000 threshold and economic instability mounts. The “very sharp, steep” trend of central bank buying lies at the heart of the DoubleLine founder and CEO’s positive outlook. At the same time, Gundlach puts the probability of a recession at 60%, viewing the “Magnificent Seven”—valuable tech giants and key drivers of stock market growth—as extremely overvalued.
What’s behind the $4,000 prediction?
During a live webcast with investors, Gundlach (known as the “Bond King” for his outsized success investing in bonds) made an ambitious prediction for gold. “I think gold will make it to $4,000.” This call exceeds the average gold price prediction for 2025, even as many financial institutions raise their benchmarks amid a relentless rally.
DoubleLine’s CEO clarified the timeline, saying “I’m not sure that’ll happen this year, but I feel like that’s the measured move.”
He attributes this anticipated upward jump on gold’s “long consolidation at around $1,800.” Prices hovered within this range between mid-2020 and EOY 2023 before decisively breaking out to the upside.
Central Bank Demand is the Catalyst
Strong government consumption is the main stimulant driving gold’s surge, Gundlach told investors—a sentiment echoed by industry experts. Since 2022, annual central bank gold demand has remained above 1,000 tons. This sustained and unprecedented rise in purchases has shocked gold out of a years-long holding pattern, helping to push the yellow metal to all-time highs.
DoubleLine’s CEO expects national-level buying to continue fueling the rally to $4,000. As countries seek to de-dollarize amid USD weakness and weaponization, gold has risen as the go-to alternative, suggesting demand could remain strong in the long run. For its part, UBS expects central bank gold consumption to hit 900 tons in 2025.
60% Chance of a Recession
Gundlach cites a weakening economic outlook and a growing risk of recession as further support for gold’s rally to the $4,000 price target. In recent months, investors have faced a wave of troubling economic indicators, including persistent inflation, low consumer confidence, and falling GDP forecasts. These concerns were reinforced at the latest Federal Reserve meeting, where officials opted not to cut rates, pointing to tariff-driven uncertainty and slowing growth.
Many experts warn of a potential recession as President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent refuse to rule it out. The “Bond King” is extremely bearish on the stock market, predicting a 60% chance of a recession. He highlighted the overevaluation of the “Mag 7” which has posted its collective worst quarter in over two years.
Dollar on the Chopping Block
With gold on the rise as central banks pour in and a looming threat of recession, the mighty dollar’s position looks vulnerable. Recently, Deutsche Bank went as far as to claim the greenback could lose its coveted reserve currency status as costly trade wars widen rifts between countries.
Gundlach struck a similarly cautious chord, telling investors, “I believe…during the next recession, the dollar will go down and the U.S. will underperform.” As USD falls in value, safe-have demand tends to increase, further supporting gold’s upward climb.