Eric Sepanek
SBC Founder
Eric Sepanek is the founder of Scottsdale Bullion & Coin, established in 2011. With extensive experience in the precious metals industry, he is dedicated to educating Americans on the wealth preservation power of gold and silver.
On Tuesday morning, gold futures soared above the $4,000/oz mark for the first time, placing another exclamation mark on a years-long rally. By the end of the day, spot prices had caught up to futures contracts, reaching an intra-day high around $4,015/oz. Since then, gold prices have extended over $4,050/oz, bringing the yellow metal’s year-to-date gains to a staggering 54%.
While the metal’s percentage gains are eye-popping, the real momentum is illustrated in the rapidly diminishing window between subsequent milestones. It took 4,523 days for gold prices to jump from $1,000/oz to $2,000/oz. The next leg, between $2,000/oz and $3,000/oz, was much quicker at 1,683 days. This gap was closed even more rapidly as the yellow metal popped from $3,000/oz to $4,000/oz within only 208 days.
A Reflection of Foundational Macro & Monetary Change
The psychological number of $4,000/oz is a meaningful figure in the minds of investors, but gold’s relentless strength even in uncharted territory tells a much deeper story. This energy is mirroring the deterioration of the broader macroeconomic and monetary environment.
Safe-Haven Demand
Gold’s run-up is exciting, especially for investors in the yellow metal, yet this safe-haven demand indicates a souring economic condition. The US is burdened by a$37 trillion national debt, continuous government spending, and several credit downgrades. The result is a loss of faith in the US-led fiscal system, both at home and abroad, spurring an interest in precious metals.
Dollar Fragility
According to the US Dollar Index, the greenback remains 10% lower than at the beginning of the year. The currency is plagued by domestic mismanagement and international skepticism. This growing distrust comes as nearly all nations reexamine their fiat-based, free-floating economies. With the US dollar falling right now, physical gold is rising as an alternative.
Central Bank Demand Extends
From a pure demand perspective, central banks remain one of the strongest tailwinds behind gold’s rally. Official buyers are on track to make 2025 the fourth consecutive year of more than 1,000 tons in purchases. Rather than being fueled by speculation, this rally is supported by a fundamental shift in the global economy, one in which gold is increasingly viewed as a Tier 1 asset and a cornerstone of financial stability.
Favorable Monetary Policy
Beyond structural financial changes and macroeconomic factors, gold remains elevated due to a favorable monetary policy. Following months of paused rate cuts, the Federal Reserve has resumed its easing cycle, which is expected to continue for all of 2026 and beyond. With yielding assets providing less return, physical instruments such as gold often see a spike in demand and prices.
Short-Term Correction = Buying Opportunity
Gold’s broader price action in recent years shows a steady, near-unbroken upward trend. Yet even the strongest rallies have needed short pauses that shake out speculative buyers and give more cautious investors an opportunity to dive into the rising tide.
The latest of these pauses unfolded between H2 and H3 2025, when gold traded sideways for several months before surging higher. Now above $4,000/oz, prices could again enter a cooling period or minor correction as the market digests its rapid gains.
Bank of America notes that gold rallies lasting seven straight weeks typically follow one of two paths: about 28% continue rising for another five weeks, while 72% enter a cooling-off phase. The bank warns that a “variety of multiple time frame technical signals and conditions warn of uptrend exhaustion,” adding that a “consolidation or correction could follow.”
These bouts of sideways trading and even slight dips represent rare buying opportunities for investors looking to dollar-cost average into their investments.
Next Stop: $5,000?
As gold charges into record territory, a bullish chorus is raising the prospects of prices hitting the $5,000/oz barrier. A steadily increasing number of analysts, including major banking institutions, believe the yellow metal has the momentum and underlying drivers needed to extend another $1,000/oz within a relatively short period.
- Yardeni Research projects the milestone by late 2026.
- State Street Global Advisors expects it by early 2026.
- Jordan Roy-Byrne, founder of The Daily Gold, aligns with a 2026 target.
- James Luke of Schroders considers $5,000/oz “frankly conservative.”
- Goldman Sachs recently reaffirmed a similar outlook, citing sustained central-bank demand and favorable macro trends.