Eric Sepanek
SBC Founder
Eric Sepanek is the founder of Scottsdale Bullion & Coin, established in 2011. With extensive experience in the precious metals industry, he is dedicated to educating Americans on the wealth preservation power of gold and silver.
Gold is headed to $4,000 by the end of 2025, according to VanEck’s most recent forecast. This fresh target comes after the yellow metal surged past the $3,000 threshold and landed near $3,500 before a slight correction, blowing the bank’s prior prediction out of the water.
The New York-based global investment firm highlights the yellow metal as “the best-performing major asset over the past year,” a trend expected to continue for the rest of 2025.
What’s driving the surge?
Central Bank Consumption
One of the most consequential drivers of gold prices in the past year has been unprecedented central bank demand.
The bank underscores that annual consumption doubled from 500 metric tons in 2021 to over 1,000 tons in 2022–a level national buyers have maintained for three consecutive years.
It further notes the disproportionate purchases stemming from emerging markets such as Russia, China, and Turkey.
Total gold demand hit a nine-year high in Q1 2025, indicating further increases in consumption.
Hedge Against Uncertainty
VanEck stresses the role of uncertainty in propelling gold prices.
“If there’s trouble in the US or global economy, people turn to gold as it’s a hedge against inflation…insurance for your portfolio…or a place to hide when there’s uncertainty.”
Stateside, investors contend with sticky inflation, policy uncertainty, and negative growth. Globally, countries struggle with geopolitical tensions and widespread economic shakeups.
De-Dollarization
Gold prices are likely to receive a boost from waning US exceptionalism as a mix of punitive tariffs, dollar-weaponization, and sky-high debt tank confidence in the greenback.
The global trend of de-dollarization “should boost gold’s appeal as the preferred safe-haven asset.”
Central banks have been making this transition for decades, and the retail market seems to be catching on. VanEck suggests this transition should pick up steam.
Geopolitical Risks
A seismic shift in global economic and power dynamics is boosting gold’s safe-haven appeal, according to analysts.
“Historical data shows that gold prices often increase during times of geopolitical unrest or instability.”
Two full-blown conflicts continue raging in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, while a US-led trade war reshuffles the global financial system.
In a cloud of uncertainty and confusion, “gold and gold stocks should ultimately benefit from the heightened level of risk.”
Market Dynamics
As the broader economic backdrop worsens, the gold market’s environment shines brighter.
VanEck’s analysts highlight gold’s tendency to outperform in the later phases of inflationary cycles as investors’ confidence, spending, and risk tolerance decline–trends that are already unfolding in the US.
“Strong rallies have often been followed by periods of consolidation…until a new catalyst emerges to drive prices even higher,” according to the bank.
A Revised Forecast to $4,000
These macroeconomic and geopolitical factors have pushed VanEck to raise its gold predictions for 2025 from $3,250 to $4,000. This 23% increase reflects an increasingly bullish sentiment exhibited across the financial sector. Many experts have confirmed that $4,000 gold is a strong possibility.
For its part, VanEck says, “We believe that gold prices could break through their inflation-adjusted highs and breach $4,000 per ounce in the near term.”
Furthermore, the bank’s CEO encourages investors to “hold gold for the long term” while still being prepared for temporary pullbacks.
What about $5,000?!
In the same note, analysts threw out a projection of $5,000/oz in the medium to long-term. More specifically, the bank cited “inflation, war, uncertainty, and growing financial instability” as catalysts pushing gold $1,000 over its 2025 forecast within the next five years.
“As these trends continue to play out and reshape the global economic order in the coming years, we believe gold has the potential to ascend toward $5,000 per ounce.”