Eric Sepanek
SBC Founder
Eric Sepanek is the founder of Scottsdale Bullion & Coin, established in 2011. With extensive experience in the precious metals industry, he is dedicated to educating Americans on the wealth preservation power of gold and silver.
Gold prices are teeing up for a “dramatic move higher” amid incessant central bank appetite, awakening North American investors, and a wavering dollar. Investment author and money manager Adrian Day expects these factors to thrust gold to the $4,000 mark within the next 12 months.
The CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management also cited global debt levels as the single biggest economic risk, of which the average investor is unaware.
National Buying Sustains Gold Rally
For the past three years, central bank gold demand has soared above 1,000 metric tons, doubling averages from the prior decade, marking one of the largest sustained increases in government buying. In a recent interview with Kitco, Day explains how this national consumption has been the “main driver of gold” lately.
The veteran investor attributes this global move toward gold to dollar weaponization. As the US pressures foreign economies through sanctions and other fiscal threats, more countries seek to diversify their reserves. Gold has stepped in to fill the gap left by de-dollarization–a process Day says is “accelerating, not slowing down.”
ETF Inflows Create Next Wave
The next wave of upward momentum in gold’s sustained surge may be the reactivation of North American investors. For a while, the West stood on the sidelines while central banks and retail investors in Asia gobbled up physical gold.
However, the World Gold Council recently reported that gold ETF inflows reached their largest inflow in three years in the first quarter of 2025. As macroeconomic indicators worsen amid a US-led trade war, more and more American investors could turn to gold as a hedge, further contributing to gold’s rally.
The Stagflationary Shadow
Stagflation is becoming such a serious concern that the Federal Reserve broached the subject in its meeting last month.
This economic-crushing mix of sticky inflation, a soft job market, and stagnant output is increasingly likely as all three economic indicators flash red.
While corrosive to risk-on markets, this rapid downturn is extremely bullish for the yellow metal. As Day explains:
“In a stagflationary environment, the best-performing asset historically has been gold.”
The Biggest Risk Investors Ignore
When asked about the biggest economic risk most people are overlooking, Day pointed to the national debt. “In most of the major economies around the world, debt levels are simply unsustainable. Something’s going to break.”
Currently, the global debt stands at $312 trillion, while the US national debt is $36 trillion.
This exceptionally high debt burdens a fledgling dollar, threatening to topple the world’s reserve currency. Although the greenback remains resilient for now, a steep downturn is possible at any moment. When the dollar reverses to the downside, gold “could see a dramatic move higher,” explains Day.
Gold in “Textbook Setup”
The emergence of these economic, macro, and geopolitical factors has placed gold in a “textbook setup,” according to Day.
When asked to name a specific price target, the CEO shared, “I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see $3,500 to $4,000 within the next 12 months.”
Despite being on the upper end of Day’s forecasted range, $4,000 feels increasingly within reach as many experts see gold exploding to this major milestone.
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