Eric Sepanek
SBC Founder
Eric Sepanek is the founder of Scottsdale Bullion & Coin, established in 2011. With extensive experience in the precious metals industry, he is dedicated to educating Americans on the wealth preservation power of gold and silver.
Investors have a closing window of opportunity to snag silver around $30 per ounce before prices soar to $38 by the end of 2025, says UBS. The bank attributed silver’s recent pullback to a “risk-off” market spasm following Trump’s blanket tariff rollout and the resulting stock market slump.
On a macro level, upcoming interest rate cuts and a sliding dollar support higher silver prices. Analysts also point to robust demand and a tightening supply for boosting the shiny metal’s luster.
Tariff Turmoil Trips Silver
Throughout 2024, silver kept pace with gold as both metals provided similar yields. This trend continued into the first quarter of 2024, with the shiny metal posting an 18% gain and the yellow metal rising 19%. That performance parity ended abruptly following the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements.
After April 2, both metals pulled back from recent highs before starting their swift recoveries. However, these rebound trajectories have differed sharply. While gold went on to reach multiple new all-time highs, silver has struggled to break through the long-standing $35 technical resistance level, despite a respectable initial recovery.
UBS analysts blame a rise in “risk-off” investor sentiment for the recent slip in silver prices. The uncertainty, volatility, and chaos caused by a global trade war are driving capital out of the stock market and other dollar-backed assets. Despite offering protection from inflation, silver got swept up into this widespread sell-off. Although not for long.
A Temporary Dip
This current trough is “unlikely to be of similar magnitude” to the prolonged silver downturn experienced in the pandemic-era. UBS anticipates this slowdown to be short-lived, pointing to a strong turnaround within the next two quarters.
“We think silver prices below $30/oz are unlikely to last over the next 3–6 months,” the bank reported in a note to investors. Instead of turning investors away amid a price decline, UBS encourages investors to buy the dip.
Analysts predict the shiny metal to hit $38 by the second half of this year, representing more than an 11% jump from Q1 highs. This bullish forecast aligns with the average expert 2025 silver price forecasts, which hover around $37.
“Positive Indicators”
In the same note, UBS analysts highlighted some “positive indicators” supporting their optimistic forecast:
- Investor Demand: Silver demand hit a record high in 2024, and the Silver Institute thinks the pace of consumption will continue in 2025. These rising purchases are running against stagnant resources, setting the market up for the fifth consecutive year of a supply deficit, a significant boost to prices.
- Further Rate Cuts: The Federal Reserve’s easing cycle is a major boon to silver prices as lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of owning non-yielding assets. Although the Fed’s pace has slowed, experts still expect a few more slashes over the rest of the year.
- Weaker Dollar: The dollar has been a major casualty of the trade war, despite a history of outperforming at the height of global economic tensions. This weakness is fueling a de-dollarization movement as central banks and retail investors shift their wealth into gold and silver, increasing prices on the way.