Gold Price Predictions & Forecasts for 2026

The rapidly declining US fiscal health is one of the biggest tailwinds for gold going into 2026. Ray Dalio describes the skyrocketing national debt as a "heart attack" threatening the economy.

After decades as the unrivaled world reserve currency, the USD is weakening due to de-dollarization efforts and strengthening foreign currencies. Moody’s recently downgraded the US credit rating, eliminating the country’s final unvarnished credit score.

Once again, central bank gold demand is set to become a key pillar of gold’s elevated price movement in 2026. Official consumption is on track to surpass the three-year streak of 1,000 tons, and nothing seems to be stopping governments from repeating the same historic demand next year.

The World Gold Council (WGC) found that 95% of central banks–the highest share ever recorded–expect gold reserves to grow within the next 12 months.

More importantly, 43% of governments–another survey record–plan to increase their reserves. As Reuters explains, “Most analysts believe that central banks remain the bedrock of gold's rally.”

The geopolitical world order has suffered a brutal blowdown of exploded trade relations, frayed defense alliances, and a collapsing economic structure.

As the 20th-century framework is warped, gold is benefiting, with countries turning to gold to shore up their financial underpinnings throughout this transformative time.

A recent European Central Bank (ECB) survey revealed that nearly two-fifths of governments point to geopolitical risk as a central motivating factor for holding gold.

Rate cuts are another crucial piece of the macroeconomic puzzle framing gold's positive outlook for 2026. The yellow metal's price movement has long been highly responsive to the rate environment, with significant cuts tending to move the needle upwards.

Following a steep cut in 2024, the Federal Reserve was forced into a wait-and-see position for most of 2025 as the economy vacillated amid a global trade war. ING predicts a 50-basis-point cut in 2026 yet warns these slashes could be deeper and quicker than anticipated if economic conditions worsen.

The central bank’s easing policy isn’t the only gold-positive development from the leading financial body. A spiraling Fed credibility crisis could fuel a rally in 2026 as well. Trump’s repeated threats to replace Chair Jerome Powell put the institution’s independence at risk.

If this cornerstone of monetary policy were removed, the US’s reputation for financial stability would suffer another crushing blow, creating a strong tailwind for gold. The country’s already fragile economic state has prompted Moody’s to downgrade the US credit rating, suggesting further deterioration would only accelerate safe-haven demand.

The volatility that has plagued US politics in recent years is reaching a breaking point, with deeply entrenched parties gridlocked–unable to address existential issues like the soaring national debt or the ever-rising cost of living.

This uncertainty is compounded by Trump’s unpredictable policy style, particularly on tariffs and trade. With no clear economic direction and constantly shifting rules, companies and investors are left in a risk-off stance, favoring safe-haven assets such as gold over equities.

The US dollar is falling right now under the weight of soaring debt levels and mounting interest costs, a growing confidence crisis in American financial leadership, and a fast-spreading global de-dollarization push.

Experts expect the greenback to weaken further into 2026 as these dollar-crushing forces persist. A Reuters poll of foreign exchange analysts projects the dollar will remain under pressure well into next year. Even after a devastating 10% freefall in 2025, Morgan Stanley believes the USD could plummet another 11% in the next 12 months.

2025 was a breakout year for gold in terms of price performance and official adoption.

Within a single year, the yellow metal overtook the euro as the world’s second widely held asset and was recognized as a Tier 1 asset in the international banking system, reflecting its increasingly central role in a transforming economy.

According to the WGC, 76% of central bank officials expect gold to make up a higher share of international reserves over the next five years.