Silver to $300/oz?! How China’s Supply Grip Fuels a Perfect Storm in Silver

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January 9, 2026

Updated

Silver has already staged a historic run, yet the forces reshaping the market may only now be coming into focus. As China quietly tightens control over silver exports, supply pressures are colliding with persistent global demand in ways that could add fuel to the next leg of the silver rally.

In this week’s The Gold Spot, Scottsdale Bullion & Coin’s Senior Precious Metals Advisor Steve Rand and Precious Metals Advisor Joe Elkjer break down China’s new silver export rules, what they signal about silver’s evolving role, and why one major bank sees potential for silver prices above $300/oz.

China Clamps Down on Silver Exports, Squeezing Global Supply

china silver export ban

There are misleading headlines circulating online claiming that China has shut down its silver exports completely. The reality is more nuanced, but no less potentially destabilizing to the metal’s critical industrial and investment demand.

As of January 1, 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce rolled out a two-year special government licensing requirement for silver exports. Under the new rules, eligible firms must:

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Prove completed silver exports every year from 2022 to 2024.
Demonstrate annual silver production exceeding 80 metric tons.

Thus far, only 44 companies have been approved under these new silver export restrictions, which are set to last through 2027. Beijing had previously imposed controls on the country’s silver market, but these changes represent a considerably more restrictive, state-directed export framework.

China’s Stranglehold on the Silver Market

These export limitations have an outsized impact on the global silver market, since China is one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of the shiny metal.

According to Business Today, China accounts for roughly 65% of the global refined silver trade. Under the new export licensing regime, an estimated 60-70% of that global supply will now require explicit approval from Beijing before it can be exported.

“Precious” Silver Becomes Critical Infrastructure

China’s decision to restrict silver exports reflects its broader move to formally designate silver as a critical mineral. Under the new export framework, silver was grouped alongside other strategically important materials subject to tighter government oversight.

“Silver is more than just a commodity now. It's a matter of national security.”
Steve Rand
General Manager / Sr. Precious Metals Advisor

This shift mirrors a growing global trend in which governments are reclassifying silver not merely as an investment or industrial metal, but as a resource essential to national security. In 2025, the Trump administration added silver to the U.S. critical minerals list.

Silver is a foundational input in solar panels, electric vehicles, semiconductors, artificial intelligence systems, and defense manufacturing, among various other technological industries, sectors where supply disruptions carry economic and geopolitical consequences.

“Silver isn't just precious, it's critical infrastructure.”
Joe Elkjer
Precious Metals Advisor

Entering the 6th Year of Supply Deficits

The silver market has suffered from a structurally imbalanced supply-and-demand ratio, making China’s restrictions that much more volatile. Experts predict the silver market will experience another supply shortfall in 2026.

This market stress occurs when demand outpaces available supply. Metal Floss expects the supply shortage to reach 30.5 million ounces this year. That would mark a contraction from 2025, yet still far from satisfying booming demand.

Source: The Silver Institute, Brownstoneresearch.com

In 2025, global silver demand reached about 1.24 billion ounces, outrunning the available supply of 1 billion ounces by roughly 25%. That difference helped propel silver prices from $30/oz at the beginning of the year to over $80/oz, a stark 142% surge. With many experts releasing bold 2026 silver price predictions, the rally may be far from over.

Silver to $300?!

silver price to 300 dollars per ounce
According to Bank of America, silver’s recent move higher may still leave significant upside on the table. Analysts point to the gold-to-silver ratio, which currently sits near 59:1, a level that has historically compressed sharply during precious-metals bull markets.

In 2011, the ratio fell to roughly 32:1, which would imply a silver price near $135/oz at today’s gold levels. During the 1980 precious-metals cycle, the ratio briefly compressed to around 14:1, a level that would equate to silver prices near $309/oz.

Viewed through this lens, higher silver prices would not necessarily signal speculative excess, but rather a reversion toward historical norms during periods of monetary stress, constrained supply, and elevated demand for hard assets.

“I believe that this is going to be a return to silver's real value… a foundation for where silver actually goes from there. It's just the beginning.”
Joe Elkjer
Precious Metals Advisor

Why This Silver Move Is Different

Unlike prior silver rallies driven largely by speculative flows, the current setup is grounded in three structural forces:

Supply Shock: China’s licensing regime restricts access to the majority of globally traded refined silver.
Persistent Structural Deficits: Demand has exceeded supply for more than five consecutive years.
Inelastic Industrial Demand: Key industries require silver regardless of price fluctuations.

Together, these factors create what increasingly looks like a long-duration supply squeeze, not a short-term trading phenomenon. This is leading many people to wonder if silver predictions for 2026 are too conservative, as they were in 2024 and 2025.

What This Means for Silver Investors

silver bars with stock chart
China’s tightening grip on silver exports is colliding with years of supply deficits and rising industrial demand, creating market conditions that look fundamentally different from past rallies. Understanding how these forces intersect is becoming increasingly important for investors watching silver’s next move.

To explore what this shifting landscape could mean for your portfolio, claim your FREE COPY of our Silver Investor Report to learn how silver may play a strategic role in strengthening and diversifying your investments.

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