Steve Rand
General Manager / Sr. Precious Metals Advisor
Steve Rand is the General Manager and a Sr. Precious Metals Advisor at Scottsdale Bullion & Coin. He brings over 20 years of experience in the physical precious metals markets.
Gold’s record-setting surge past $4,000/oz has spurred bullish price forecasts, with some optimistic experts hungry for $5,000/oz and beyond.
Investors who think the rally is overheated need to understand why this next target is more achievable than it seems.
The Significance of $4,000 Gold
Gold blasted through $4,000/oz on October 8, 2025, notching yet another record on the metal’s enduring rally. Both the spot price and futures market surpassed this considerable threshold, putting gold on a path toward price discovery. Unlike previous all-time highs, this peak held unique significance for the gold market.
This figure sits above gold’s inflation-adjusted high, which has stood for over 45 years. In February 1980, prices reached over $3,400 in 2025 dollars. Now, gold is truly entering uncharted territory with no historical roadblocks to slow its growth.
Several analysts now view the $4,000/oz mark as a floor instead of a price ceiling, providing a launching point for upward movement. This psychological number acting as a support base is reinforced by strong macroeconomic factors such as persistent central bank demand, dollar weakness, and growing investor inflows.
The Shrinking $500 Gap
Although perfectly round numbers are arbitrary markers, it’s helpful to pinpoint milestones along gold’s rally. One widely used benchmark, including by the World Gold Council, is the $500 increment.
Since the end of the gold standard, when gold was untethered from the US dollar, the metal has made this leap seven times. Since crossing $1,500, the time between each jump has shrunk significantly, reflecting an exponential rise in gold prices.
A few months ago, gold soared from $3,000/oz to a new all-time high of $3,500/oz in just 39 days, a move more than 90% faster than the previous $500 climb, which took 407 days. Before that, investors waited three times longer for prices to extend the same amount.
Most recently, gold prices have exploded from $3,500/oz to $4,000/oz in only 36 days, further collapsing the $500 gap. Leading up to the $4,000/oz milestone, gold took an average of 1,036 days to cross $500.
This accelerating momentum is expected to continue as the World Gold Council highlights how gold is “en route to mark its strongest performance in a calendar year since 1979.”
Here’s the breakdown:
| Gold Price (oz) From → To | Days Elapsed |
|---|---|
| $35 → $500 | 4,127 days |
| $500 → $1,000 | 9,251 days |
| $1,000 → $1,500 | 1,131 days |
| $1,500 → $2,000 | 3,397 days |
| $2,000 → $2,500 | 1,276 days |
| $2,500 → $3,000 | 407 days |
| $3,000 → $3,500 | 39 days |
| $3,500 → $4,000 | 36 days |
The Expanding $5,000 Consensus
A boldly optimistic consensus is growing rapidly as more and more experts voice their support for $5,000/oz gold. Here are the analysts, economists, investors, banks, and advisors predicting this significant jump:
Investors & Strategists
Peter Schiff, Chief Market Strategist at Euro Pacific Asset Management
“$5,000 is nothing at this point. That’s just a pit stop on the road to much, much higher prices.”
Jamie Dimon, CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase
“Gold] could easily go to $5,000 or $10,000 in environments like this”
Rob McEwen, McEwen Mining CEO
“I have some friends [who] are suggesting it’s going much higher than $5,000, but right now I’m happy with $5,000.”
Ed Yardeni, Founder of Yardeni Research
“We are now aiming for $5,000 in 2026,” Yardeni added. “If it continues on its current path, it could reach $10,000 before the end of the decade.”
Randy Smallwood, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp
“I’m confident that we will see gold over $5,000 within the next year. It’s a trajectory that could easily put it up to $10,000 an ounce before the end of the decade. It wouldn’t surprise me at all.”
Ed Ponsi, The Street
“The silver lining for gold investors would be new highs and a resumption of the bullish trend. $5,000 may seem far away, but it’s not out of reach.”
Investing Haven
“Our gold price prediction remains firmly bullish…$5,155 by 2030.”
Analysts & Fund Managers
Adam Kobeissi, Founder of The Kobeissi Letter
“We may be due for a cool down soon, but I think we’ll see 5,000 gold in the near future.”
John Paulson, Paulson & Co. Founder & Manager
“Central bank gold buying and global trade tensions are likely to push bullion prices to near $5,000 an ounce by 2028, billionaire investor John Paulson said in an interview.”
Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group
“Gold prices could surge to $5,000 an ounce if tensions between the United States and China continue to escalate.”
James Luke, Schroder’s Metals Fund Manager
“Gold at $5,000/oz by the end of the decade did not feel an outlandish scenario twelve months ago. It feels frankly conservative now.”
VanEck
“Gold was built for the shifting trends currently unfolding in the global economy: inflation, war, uncertainty, and growing financial instability. As these trends continue to play out and reshape the global economic order in the coming years, we believe gold has the potential to ascend toward $5,000 per ounce.”
Jim Thorne, Wellington-Altus’ Chief Market Strategist
“I think…gold will be $5,000…by the end of the Trump term.”
Institutions & Banks
Bank of America
“Bank of America on Monday raised its price forecasts for precious metals, lifting its 2026 outlook for gold to $5,000 an ounce.”
J.P. Morgan
“JP Morgan analysts on Thursday maintained a bullish outlook on gold, forecasting prices could reach an average of $5,055 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026.”
HSBC
“The bull market is likely to continue to press prices higher for 1H’26, and we could very well reach a high of $5,000/oz sometime in 1H 2026.”
Société Générale
“Analysts at Société Générale think it could climb as high as $5,000 (£3,769) by the end of 2026.”
Why $5,000 Gold is Closer Than You Think
The movement from $4,000/oz to $5,000/oz in such a short time frame might seem unlikely, but this is the result of a psychological gap, not technical or macroeconomic analysis.
All investors have a cognitive blind spot known as scale bias — the tendency to believe that the bigger a number gets, the lower the probability it will grow. It’s a mental shortcut that overlooks the actual data, even when the numbers clearly suggest otherwise.
When viewed in raw dollar terms, the jump from $4,000/oz to $5,000/oz is a hefty $1,000, which can seem daunting. After all, it’s taken gold years to cover that distance in the past. That’s not too inspiring.
It’s headed to $5,000 or beyond. This is an excellent time to be buying gold.–
However, the perspective shifts when the picture is framed in percentage terms — the measurement that counts. A move from $4,000/oz toward $5,000/oz would imply a roughly 25% gain, which in historical gold cycles would be considered substantial. For comparison, the recent advance from $3,500/oz to $4,000/oz occurred in just 36 days, far faster than typical gold rallies.