Eric Sepanek
SBC Founder
Eric Sepanek is the founder of Scottsdale Bullion & Coin, established in 2011. With extensive experience in the precious metals industry, he is dedicated to educating Americans on the wealth preservation power of gold and silver.
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With gold trading well below the record highs reached earlier in 2026, a price forecast of $10,000/oz may seem extreme. However, that’s precisely where the head of gold strategy at State Street Investment Management sees the yellow metal heading.
According to Aakash Doshi, the structural forces that supported gold’s long-term bull rally remain intact, despite the recent correction. Under this thesis, mounting pressures from soaring national debt, currency debasement, rising bond yields, and persistent central bank gold buying could drive prices into five-digit territory.
$5,000 Near Term & $10,000 Long Term
As gold prices hover a few hundred dollars above the $4,000/oz mark, the $10,000/oz figure can be jarring. Yet, Doshi’s central point is that the macroeconomic environment creates the conditions for gold to hit this milestone at some point in the future, not necessarily on a fixed timeline.
For reference, State Street maintains an official gold price prediction between $4,750/oz and $5,500/oz by early next winter. Meanwhile, Doshi sees $5,000/oz to $5,250/oz as a reasonable near-term target. When discussing the much larger benchmark, he says:
I do think $10,000 is a question of when, not if.–
Importantly, the head of State Street’s gold strategy acknowledges that the climb to $10,000/oz wouldn’t be a straight line. The uneven trajectory would include short dips and prolonged corrections with potential disruptions from economic recessions, monetary policy shifts, renewed demand for U.S. Treasuries, and more.
Why State Street Thinks Gold Can Reach $10,000
The core argument behind Doshi’s $10,000/oz forecast is a combination of systemic forces that enhance gold’s appeal to investors in the long run, resulting in heightened demand and rising prices.
The Debasement Trade Remains Active
The debasement trade refers to a shift from traditional investments and fiat currency exposure toward safe-haven assets to protect against declining purchasing power, rising inflation, aggressive monetary policies, and other forces working against wealth preservation. Along with J.P. Morgan, Doshi argues that gold is the debasement trade for investors looking to protect their money from these corrosive forces.
Sovereign Debt Is the Bigger Long-Term Risk
The head of State Street’s gold strategy believes sovereign debt will have greater influence over the yellow metal’s long-term trajectory than Federal Reserve decisions. The United States’ national debt of $40 trillion shows no signs of slowing down. Rising borrowing costs and persistent deficits across some of the most indebted nations, including the U.K., Japan, and much of Europe, are turning sovereign-debt sustainability into a broader global concern.
Rising Long-Term Bond Yields Aren’t Bearish for Gold
Historically, rising U.S. Treasury yields are a headwind for gold as investors are pulled toward government securities offering higher returns. Yet, the reason behind the rising yields matters. Instead of being driven by healthy economic growth, long-term yields are climbing because investors are demanding higher returns to hold U.S. debt. This reinforces the case for owning gold by highlighting unease over government borrowing.
Gold Has No Counterparty Risk
Another piece of the $10,000/oz gold puzzle, according to Doshi, is the metal’s role outside of the broader financial system. As investors increasingly seek protection from the risks of national debt, inflation, and fiat currencies, tangible assets with independence from the traditional financial framework will become more appealing. As Doshi describes, “Gold has no creditor.” More specifically, physical gold owned outright carries no counterparty risk.
Investment Demand Has Significant Room to Grow
Perhaps the most concrete part of Doshi’s argument is the relatively small role gold still plays in global investment portfolios. Currently, gold-related investments comprise less than 1% of worldwide exchange-traded and mutual fund assets. Even a modest shift to a 3% allocation could generate enough buying pressure to push gold to $10,000. This comes as many financial institutions are raising recommendations about how much gold should be in your portfolio.
Doshi Is Not Alone in Seeing Five-Digit Gold
Doshi’s five-digit gold outlook is aggressive, but he is hardly alone in arguing that the metal could eventually reach $10,000 or beyond. Several prominent investors, strategists, and precious-metals executives have raised similar possibilities:
- JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon thinks gold “could easily go to $5,000 or $10,000” under the current market environment.
- Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni says that he “wouldn’t be surprised” to see gold reach $10,000/oz by the end of the decade, citing the metal’s years-long bull run.
- Jeff Currie, Carlyle’s Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways, has made a long-term $10,000 gold call, pointing to years of underinvestment in commodity supply and the eventual return of central bank buying.
- Wheaton Precious Metals Chair Randy Smallwood, then the company’s CEO, reports that gold’s trajectory could “easily” carry prices to $10,000/oz before the end of the decade, citing dollar weakness, geopolitical uncertainty, constrained supply, and central bank purchases.
- Franco-Nevada co-founder Pierre Lassonde reiterates a $17,250 gold forecast based on soaring U.S. debt, debt monetization, dollar debasement, de-dollarization, and central-bank buying.
- Ned Davis Research Chief Alternatives Strategist John LaForge downplays specific targets like $8,000 or $12,000, arguing that the broader upward trend should persist as long as governments fail to address mounting sovereign debt and currency debasement.
The Bottom Line
Whether gold reaches $10,000/oz in three years or ten, the forces behind Doshi’s forecast (record sovereign debt, currency debasement, and still-minimal portfolio allocations) show no sign of fading. The key takeaway isn’t the exact price target but the reasoning behind it: gold’s long-term case rests on protecting purchasing power when government balance sheets are under strain. With prices still well below their 2026 highs, the current correction may give long-term buyers room to build a position before broader institutional demand catches up.